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Compass Financial Advisors

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US Economy and Credit Markets Ended May 4, 2018

 U.S. Treasuries exhibited weakness last week, especially short dated maturities, amid strong economic data, rising energy prices, larger debt auctions and a Federal Reserve meeting which saw rates left alone. While Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting saw rates left unchanged, the future implied probabilities are pricing in a nearly 75% chance for an increase in June. Including the June raise, implied probabilities suggest a total of two more raises in 2018 but are still allowing a 37% chance for three raises. Oil closed near $70/barrel as Venezuela production is in freefall. Because of this, OPEC is exceeding its promised production cuts amid strong global demand outstripping continued strong production from the American Permian basin. On Monday, personal income was seen increasing .3% in March, led by rising wages and an increase in social security benefits, and is up 3.7% from a year before. On Thursday, the trade deficit came in at $49 billion for March and was $4.2 billion larger than the prior year. Friday morning pre-market news showed nonfarm payrolls increasing 164K in April. While this fell short of expectations, the U.S. labor market continues to improve. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Wednesday: May 4 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -2.5%), April CPI final Demand (0.2%, 0.3%) and March final Wholesale Inventories (0.6%, 0.5%) Thursday: May 5 Initial Jobless Claims (219K, 211K); Friday: May preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment (98.4, 98.8

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Latest Market News

 Stocks fell for the week as investors grappled with higher bond yields, political risks around the globe, trade tensions and higher energy prices. The real estate and utilities sectors, which tend to be bond proxies due to their high dividend yields, lost over 2% for the week. By contrast, the materials and energy sectors posted the biggest gains as investors are starting to price in higher inflation expectations. In economic news, retail sales rose 0.3% in April, in-line with forecasts, as higher paychecks from tax-cuts offset rising fuel costs. In stock news, both Walmart Inc.

 Treasury prices dropped moderately over the course of the week on strong economic data and speculation that both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank may raise interest rates more quickly than previously expected. On Tuesday, April Advance Retail Sales were solid while March sales figures were revised to 0.8%, and May Empire Manufacturing was higher than expected, causing a risk-on environment which led to a significant drop in Treasury prices. It was also reported on Tuesday that the U.S.

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Securities offered through Harbour Investments, Inc.,
member FINRA/SIPC. http://www.finra.org/
http://www.sipc.org/about-sipc

Investment Advisory Services offered through
Compass Financial Advisors, LLC,
a registered Advisor. 
Compass Financial Advisors, LLC &
Harbour Investments, Inc.
are separate entities.

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