Compass Financial Advisors

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 The S&P 500 returned -1.35% last week, down for the third time in the last four weeks. Much of the negative performance can be attributed to intensified tariff concerns. China continued to respond to President Trump's protectionist policies with tariffs of their own. On Wednesday, China expanded their proposed tariffs to be levied on products from the U.S. China's equity markets were closed Thursday and Friday for a national holiday so the final drag on their markets remains to be seen. U.S. equity markets ended Thursday positive, after the White House doused trade war fears.

 Treasury prices extended their rally over the past week pushing the yield on the 10-yr U.S. Treasury note below 2.75% on Friday. Treasury yields across the board continued to fall as global markets reacted to the continued threat of a trade war between the United States and China and a weaker than expected jobs report in the United States. President Donald Trump and policymakers from the Chinese government continued their banter over tariff propositions last week. China responded to the United States' tariff announcement by declaring $50 billion of its own tariffs on U.S.

 Stocks, measured by the S&P 500, closed higher this holiday shortened week by 2%. The index closed the first three months of 2018 down -0.76%, its first quarterly loss since 2015. The first quarter of the year has seen an increase in volatility in both the news and in the markets. The S&P 500 has had a daily gain or loss of greater than 1% 23 times this year compared to only eight in all of 2017. Technology stocks felt the weight of FANG as Amazon took the sector lower earlier in the week after Facebook was the laggard the previous week.

 Yields continued to fall early last week as fears of a trade war resurfaced. Notably, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield closed below 2.80% for the first time in seven weeks. Strong economic data later in the week supported the Federal Reserve's recent upward revision for growth prospects in coming months and Treasuries retreated. The final reading for fourth quarter QDP growth was revised up to 2.9% from an initial 2.5%, exceeding the expected revision to 2.7%. Consumer spending and business investment were positive contributors to the revisions.

 View from the Observation Deck

 View from the Observation Deck 

 The S&P 500 Index slid nearly 6% last week and closed at the lowest level since February 8th, bringing the YTD return to -2.75%. Most of the negative movement can be credited to increasing odds of a global trade war. President Trump announced a plan to implement tariffs on nearly $60b of Chinese goods as punishment for China's lax enforcement U.S. intellectual property rights. In retaliation, China announced possible tariffs on over 128 imported U.S. goods. The result was a return of -4.7% for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index last week.

 In his first meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell and his fellow governors chose to raise the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5 to 1.75%. The Fed called out strong growth in jobs while they had previously discussed jobs growth as solid. Additionally, they noted that the economic outlook had strengthened and increased their GDP growth estimate from 2.5% for 2018 to 2.7%. They also guided to 2.4% GDP growth in 2019, up from 2.1% previously.



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Securities offered through Harbour Investments, Inc.,
member FINRA/SIPC.

Investment Advisory Services offered through
Compass Financial Advisors, LLC,
a registered Advisor. 
Compass Financial Advisors, LLC &
Harbour Investments, Inc.
are separate entities.

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